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Showing posts from December, 2021

Can you make a 100% per year return on capital selling put options in SPY?

Selling put options is a very popular stock option strategy.  It is analogous to selling insurance, by collecting a premium to give the option (policy) holder the ability to sell stock a specific price obligating the seller to buy it at that price. 2 Popular reasons to sell put Willing to buy stock at a lower price than currently Neutral to bullish opinion and premium attractive enough premium to risk against capital In the first scenario, if the price goes lower and expires in-the-money, the investor gets to buy at the strike price AND collect the premium.  In the second scenario,  if the trader is correct will collect the premium and even if slightly wrong can still come out ahead if the premium is large enough.  Eg.  SPY is trading 470 and sold an at-the-money put (470) for $7, but at expiry the stock closes at 465.  In this scenario, the trader was wrong, but still makes (470-465+7) $2 if he immediately closes the SPY position on expiration. How much Op...

How Portfolio Allocation Strategies have evolved

 Portfolio allocation strategy has gone back as far as 1200 BC in writings of Talmud and has continue to evolved in the 1900s.  Below are 4 major strategies where the arrows show influence. Talmud Strategy "Let every man divide his money into three parts, and invest a third in land, a third in business and a third let him keep by him in reserve." - Talmud (as early as 1200 BC) (Stocks, REITs, Bonds)    Modern Portfolio Theory Harry Markowitz developed the mean variance portfolio that incorporated expected return, expected standard deviation and expected correlation.  These lead to the creation of the popular 60/40 portfolio of stocks and bonds where risk averse investors can construct portfolios that maximize return while minimizing risk. Permanent Portfolio Harry Browne developed a strategy to have financial safety, no matter what the future brings.  He then invested based on 4 possible parts of the economic cycle: Prosperity -> stocks Deflation -> l...