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Showing posts from May, 2022

How can you use the CBOE Volatility Index, VIX, to predict stock prices?

The CBOE Volatility Index, VIX, is expressed in percentage terms as an annualized one standard deviation move of returns on the S&P 500 Index.  For example, for a value 20 this would mean that a one standard deviation move is expected to be: sqrt(30/365.25) * Annualized Volatility (20%) =  5.7%.  In other words, for a VIX of 20, this means that the market (implied from option prices) expects the S&P 500 Index to be within +/- 5.7% for a 30 day period 68% of the time (the amount of expected observations within + and - one standard deviation). 30 day expected move VIX 1std (68%) 2std (95%) 3std (99.7%) 10% 2.9% 5.7% 8.6% 20% 5.7% 11.5% 17.2% 40% 11.5% 22.9% 34.4% For a detailed explanation of how the VIX is calculated, you can see the official whitepaper here: https://cdn.cboe.com/resources/vix/vixwhite.pdf But lets go over some of the basics.   Why do we estimate 30 day? When the VIX was first introduced, not as many option series (months) were listed....

Hedging Inflation in the US. Series I Bonds and the CPI currently at 9.62%

What are Series I Bonds? and what is current rate? I Series Bonds are savings bonds issued by the US Government that earn interest based on combining a fixed rate and an inflation rate (CPI index).  Currently the fixed rate is 0.0%, However the inflation rate is 9.62%.  More details can be found here: https://www.treasurydirect.gov/indiv/research/indepth/ibonds/res_ibonds.htm 5 Important things to know about Series I Bonds? can't be purchased through a broker, must be purchased from https://www.treasurydirect.gov (the user experience is very poor as website is very old) can only by $10,000 of bonds per year (but can buy as gifts for others and minors) the interest rate is set every 6 months for the next 6 months ( May and October) the bond matures in 30 years, but you can redeem after 5 years without any penalty (the penalty if before 5 years is the last 3 months of interest Federally taxable, but exempt from state and local income tax Your personal inflation may be different...

LUNA cryptocurrency wipeout and UST Stablecoin Depegs in less than 3 days

In less than 3 days, the UST Stablecoin and LUNA cryptocurrency went from over $50 Billion to less than 0.  This was the 3rd largest stablecoin. https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/terra-luna ~$30 Billion https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/terra-usd ~$20 Billion Was it an Cyber-Attack? Hack? Ponzi? Cyber Attack? No indication of this, Actually from everything said so far the blockchain behaved as it should have with no network outages from cyber-attack (This actually shows that the technology used to implement is now battle tested - It is/was a Cosmos IBC (Inter-Block-chain Communication protocol) Hack? No indication of this.  No keys were stolen. Ponzi? Not exactly, it wasn't promising any type of yield and paying off older investors with new investors.  Although Anchor Protocol ( https://www.anchorprotocol.com/ ) it is a bit more grey (this was the protocol promising 20% yield on UST) What happened? Most opinion is that it was a currency attack where more than $3 Bill...